What can we expect from a betting standpoint?
Betting analysts Eric Moody, Seth Walder and Aaron Schatz are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET.
Chargers (-3.5, 39.5) at Jets. How are you betting this game?
Schatz: I prefer the total to the spread here. Yes, Jets games tend to be low-scoring, but the Chargers have had a total over 40.5 in six of their seven games this season. Part of the issue there is that the Los Angeles defense has simply not been good this year, ranked 27th in DVOA right now. The Jets will be able to move the ball a little bit, and so will the Chargers, and so I’m going with over 40.5.
Moody: I am backing the Jets (+3.5) to cover the spread for this game. New York is playing at home, and the Chargers are traveling from the West Coast to the East Coast. This season, the Jets’ defense has been strong, ranking ninth in run stop win rate and allowing the fifth fewest opponent passing yards per game. New York will be ready to compete on the national stage. This is going to be a close game, in my opinion. The Chargers are only 12-8-1 against the spread when they are road favorites since moving to Los Angeles.
The Jets have quietly won three in a row and haven’t lost since Oct. 1, and even that was a three-point loss to the Chiefs. Are you buying New York as a team that has turned it around?
Schatz: Define “turn it around,” I guess. To the team we thought they were going to be with Aaron Rodgers this year? Nope. But better than they were in September? Yes. The Jets ranked 31st in offensive DVOA in September compared with 24th in October. Their defensive DVOA has gone from 16th in September to fourth in October. If they keep playing the way they have played since that close Kansas City loss, the Jets can be wild-card contenders. So yes, I guess I’m buying.
Walder: No. There’s talk of Zach Wilson playing better, but I just don’t see it. He ranked 30th in QBR in 2021, would have ranked 28th if he qualified in 2022 and ranks 28th in 2023. The defense is legitimately excellent, but the Jets are fortunate to be 4-3 with Wilson and I expect he will hold the team back in the second half of the season.
Breece Hall‘s rushing yards prop is set for 57.5 while Austin Ekeler‘s is at 46.5. Which running back do you feel is more likely to hit the OVER?
Moody: Hall OVER 57.5 rushing yards. He’s ready for a huge workload coming out of the bye week for a Jets team that doesn’t appear to want Dalvin Cook involved. Hall had 18 touches last week against the Giants. Against a Chargers defense that has allowed opponents the second most total yards per game, he’s in good position to succeed. Los Angeles’ defensive front ranks 21st in run stop win rate. Despite averaging only 11.1 rushing attempts per game, Hall ranks among the top five running backs in rushing attempts of 20 yards or more.
What’s your favorite prop bet Monday?
Schatz: The Chargers allow 58 receiving yards per game to running backs, close to the worst figure in the NFL. Breece Hall has 54 and 76 receiving yards in his past two games. It looks set up for Hall to go OVER 19.5 receiving yards in Monday night’s game.
Moody: Garrett Wilson OVER 67.5 receiving yards. Wilson has surpassed 67.5 receiving yards in two consecutive games. Also, he has accumulated 10 or more targets in each of them. No other defense allows more passing yards per game to opponents than the Chargers. Wilson and Jets quarterback Zach Wilson should be able to capitalize on this favorable matchup.
Walder: Quinnen Williams UNDER 0.5 sacks (-190). Williams is a very good player but has all sorts of circumstances working against him here. He plays defensive tackle and his team is the underdog and, most important, Justin Herbert has just a 5.3% sack rate this season — seventh-lowest among quarterbacks. My model puts the fair price at -341.
Is there anything else you’re playing Monday?
Moody: Justin Herbert OVER 0.5 Interceptions. Herbert has had a pass intercepted in three of his past four games. He’s playing, but the finger injury still seems to be an issue. There is a strong chance that Herbert will throw an interception on the road against a very good Jets secondary where the margin for error won’t be as wide as it was last week against the Bears.
Walder: Jordan Whitehead OVER 4.5 tackles + assists (-140). Although he’s a safety, Whitehead still records a similar tackle share on run and pass plays and a higher tackle rate on run plays. That means if the Chargers get ahead and start running the ball more than usual, that actually would work in Whitehead’s favor in terms of the over. My model projects Whitehead for 6.3 tackles + assists.
First appeared on www.espn.com